I read a lot, and in 2001, Gordon Chang, (He’s been on Fox News many times), wrote a book titled, “The Coming Collapse of China.” I bought it, read it, and forgot it, until after I wrote the column a couple of weeks ago, about “China’s Future.” I write in the front of books I keep, with the date and my comments, and that’s how I know I read it on 5/30/02. It’s a bit dated now over the last 19 years, but the main substance of it, is as the title of the book describes. My previous column wasn’t based on Chang’s book, because I forgot I read it or even had it. I now feel even stronger, after going through it again, that China will go the way of the Soviets, and especially after reading, last week, a wonderful book by Bret Baier, titled “Three Days in Moscow,” which is a marvelous read about Ronnie Reagan. Highly recommended!
Reagan’s tact, intelligence, and speaking ability, was in the main, responsible for the final breakup of the Soviet Union under Gorbachev, although it was virtually on its last days when Reagan visited and became friends with Gorbachev. Remember Reagan saying “TEAR DOWN THAT WALL?” It did finally collapse under Bush 41. The Soviet collapse had to happen, just like, to me anyway, China must eventually collapse also. There are over 300,000 SOE’s (State Owned Enterprises) in China, and none show a profit. The same with the four main huge state-owned banks in China.” (The SOE’s borrow from the SOE banks, never repay, and it’s all fake economics). The word “State Owned,” means the CCP, or Chinese Communist Party, now under complete control by Xi Jinping, who daily it seems, finds new ways to throttle and control the Chinese population by deceit, lies, corruption and brute force. The following, are direct quotes from Chang’s book, and I think they point to an eventual economic collapse of China.
“In Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward, in that most absurd of economic development campaigns, millions died from starvation, perhaps 30 million, although some say many more.” “Privatization is a dreaded term in today’s China.” “History shows that the Chinese people, once aroused, will not be denied. The Ming and the Oing, the last two imperial dynasties, and Chiang Kai-Shek’s Kuomintang, the Nationalists, all fell quickly.” “Dynasties appear strong, even toward their end.” “In China, all things serve the state.” And about taking over Taiwan… “Taiwan is an obsession, one that creates a hideous spectacle of a large dictatorship trying to intimidate a small democracy.” “I think it’s very dangerous to underestimate the willingness of the Chinese leadership to march over a cliff over the issue of sovereignty.” “Destruction of your neighbor is destruction of yourself, says the Dalai Lama, and he is right: A conflict would set back China’s economy by years, if not longer. It would be much worse than the hiatus after the Tiananmen Square massacre, when foreign investors literally fled from China.” “At any one time, somewhere between 70 to 130 million migrants are roaming China for work.” “Labor unions are not permitted.” “Brute force is effective only in the short run.” “When communist regimes fall, they fall quickly.” “In China, the government will fall when fear becomes rage.”
When Chang wrote his book, Hong Kong hadn’t been brutalized by Xi, and was a free, profitable, state, which it no longer is. However, the Hong Kong brutalization, is a perfect example of the power of the CCP and Xi, which fulfills all the predictions by Chang.
“At the core of China’s problems, are the state-owned enterprises.” “Subsidies keep the grossly inefficient system going.” “Beijing is replacing direct subsidies with loans from state-owned banks. SOE’s are gobbling up about 70 percent of domestic lending.” “Large SOE’s have evidently perceived, quite correctly as it turns out, that they do not need to pay back the banks.” “The official statistics showed that SOE’s produced around 28 percent of China’s output with about 53 percent of its industrial fixed assets, and 41 percent of the urban workforce.” “Mao sought absolute control over the Chinese population.” (As does Xi and the CCP). “Most Chinese don’t believe in communism.” “Among borrowers there is a philosophy that it’s better to repay late than repay early, and it’s better not to repay than to repay late. China, in short, is in the process of creating a society based on the repudiation of debt, warns a prominent Beijing scholar.” “History repeats itself in dictatorships around the world. And when it does, the people will show that they have what the Chinese military thinker Sun-Tu called the “Supreme skill,” that is to be able to win without fighting. It happened in Berlin and Bucharest and will soon occur in Beijing: the people will take back their government. It may be brought on by the people’s revolt against corruption.” ”The Party’s internal mechanisms handles thousands of malfeasance cases each year; but evidently not enough of them. From top to bottom, the Party is infested. The Party can undertake any initiative as long as it remains in control. The one thing it cannot do is let the common people take over.”
“China’s stock markets are infested to their roots, and they’re worse than casinos. At any given time, about 30 percent of the stocks in China’s markets are being manipulated.” “As technology improves, we will see these events on our television screens or on the internet as they occur.” (Maybe not, as the Party now controls both, and will not allow anything like that to appear, but the people know). “When foreigners dump Chinese stocks, domestic investors will have to follow. When Chinese investors lose money, they will protest. When it becomes apparent that the central government is not able to save listed companies, ordinary citizens will begin to question the banks.”
“It will not take much, as Voclav Havel, president of the Czech Republic tells us. “Society was already pregnant with problems. In this sort of situation, a snowball can start an avalanche.” In Havel’s Czechoslovakia of 1989, it was clear that something would happen. In China today, many cannot foresee the collapse of the one-party state. Yet as Havel also knows, facades crack. One moment the state is there, and the people cheer; the next moment it is gone, and they rejoice. It is the fear of every autocrat.” “I am the emperor, my descendants will be numerous. From the second generation to the ten thousandth, my line will not end, said Qin Shihaungdi, acknowledged as China’s first emperor. It lasted two years after his death. In China, that’s still the case, as the model of central leadership has not essentially changed.”
As if the foregoing weren’t bad enough, it seems like in every issue, the Journal has more bad news about the Chinese real estate catastrophe. The latest figure of debt is many trillions of dollars. Several major real estate developers have ceased making required payments on funds borrowed to build thousands of apartments, homes, amusement parks, and factories. Could this be the straw which broke the camel’s back? Could this spread around the world, and make people leery of China and not invest in it? Could the real estate disaster spread to other and all parts of the shaky Chinese empire, causing it to begin the fall of China? When the Soviets went down in 1991, the signs began appearing two years earlier. The total collapse in 1991 took a couple years to accomplish, and no one knew till the very end. All seemed to be normal, and the Soviets were still conducting the arms race, and bullying nations. Poof! It was gone. I’ll still take gold and silver, which are not controlled, priced, or even known about by any government anywhere.
There you have it. Why do Americans as well as others fall for the fake Chinese statistics in all areas? The so called wonderful Chinese economy is a pack of three-dollar bills. Lies, exaggerations, corruption, and bluff, has allowed China to become the second largest economy in the world…for now. How can it continue? Enslaved people under communism and socialism, cannot invent, or innovate. All they can do is steal from those who can think, invent, and solve problems. Does anyone really believe China could be where it is, without stealing from America, Germany, Britain, Australia, and the rest of the free world, the basics of everything they have? Time will tell.
Don Stott- don@coloradogold.com